华泰证券:短期哑铃型配置强化 建议在成长、周期和红利中均衡配置
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-18 00:13

Core Viewpoint - The overall industry prosperity index continued to decline in October, but the rate of decline has slowed, with essential consumption, midstream manufacturing, and large financial sectors showing significant improvement [1] Industry Analysis - AI Chain Deepening: The prosperity of storage, communication equipment, and software is on the rise, while components and consumer electronics may experience a high-level decline [1] - Price Increase Chain: Benefiting from global fiscal and monetary easing, as well as domestic anti-involution policies, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, coal, certain chemicals, and renovation materials are seeing a recovery in prosperity [1] - Capital Goods and Intermediate Products: Industries like batteries, photovoltaics, and engineering machinery are experiencing a rebound in prosperity [1] - Consumer Goods: The prosperity of dairy products and cosmetics is recovering from the bottom [1] - Independent Prosperity Cycles: Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, military industry, and insurance are witnessing a recovery in prosperity [1] Investment Strategy - A short-term barbell strategy is recommended, balancing investments across growth, cyclical, and dividend sectors, focusing on those with improving prosperity, sustainable potential, and relatively low valuations [1] - After the gradual digestion of technology crowding pressure, there may be opportunities for recovery, particularly in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, general automation, storage, military industry, and insurance [1] - Additionally, early positioning in certain consumer and service sectors, such as dairy products, is advised [1]