Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-11-18 00:43Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices, driven by rising costs, demand, and market sentiment, suggests a potential new "super cycle" for lithium battery materials is approaching [1][3][7]. Price Movements - On November 17, 2023, lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 9%, closing at 95,200 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 7,840 yuan per ton [1]. - Leading companies in the A-share market, Tianqi Lithium (002466) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460), saw significant stock price increases of 9.87% and 7.48%, respectively, on the same day [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman indicated that if lithium carbonate demand grows over 30% next year, prices could exceed 150,000 yuan per ton, potentially reaching 200,000 yuan per ton if demand growth hits 40% [3]. - The projected global lithium carbonate demand for 2025 is 1.45 million tons, with an updated estimate of 1.55 million tons due to increased energy storage needs [3]. - Current supply capabilities are over 1.7 million tons, indicating a potential surplus of around 200,000 tons if demand does not exceed expectations [3]. Cost Factors - The increase in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to rising costs, particularly the anticipated increase in lithium mica costs [5]. - The cost of producing lithium carbonate from lithium mica is estimated to have risen by approximately 3,500 yuan per ton, bringing the total production cost to around 77,000 yuan per ton [6]. Market Sentiment and Speculation - The current price surge in lithium carbonate futures is largely viewed as capital speculation, as the spot market does not reflect the same level of activity [4][3]. - The sentiment in the market is influenced by the strong demand for energy storage solutions, which is expected to drive lithium battery demand growth exceeding 30% next year [8]. Supply Chain Considerations - The supply side is facing uncertainties, including the impact of increased imported lithium resources and the potential resumption of production at the Jiangxi lithium mica mine, which could affect lithium carbonate prices [8].