金价短期受到压制，但全球央行购金趋势未变

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.20% to $4045.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.25% to $50.05 per ounce [1] - Analysts suggest that precious metal prices may continue to be pressured by a strengthening dollar and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, but the long-term trend of global central bank gold purchases remains unchanged, providing support for precious metals [1] - Since 2022, the traditional negative correlation between gold prices and the real interest rates of the dollar has weakened, with the driving force behind rising gold prices being unprecedented gold purchasing by central banks, particularly in emerging markets [1] Group 2 - The natural supply constraints of gold, due to the scarcity of mineral resources and the lengthy exploration and extraction cycles, have resulted in a relatively rigid supply, with global gold production remaining between 3400-3700 tons since 2018 [4] - The marginal changes in demand have become the core driving force reshaping gold pricing logic, as gold and the dollar are in a competitive relationship, with central banks replacing dollars with gold when dollar credit declines [4] - From 2022 to 2024, the average annual net gold purchases by global central banks are expected to reach 1073 tons, accounting for 23% of total global gold demand, with Goldman Sachs predicting that gold prices could rise to $4900 by the end of 2026 [4]