煤价上涨动能或将持续，关注全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）

Core Viewpoint - The coal ETF (515220) experienced a 1.73% increase on November 17, indicating positive market sentiment towards coal investments amid supply constraints and rising demand [1]. Supply Side - In November, central emergency management departments are conducting safety inspections in major coal-producing regions, leading to ongoing supply disruptions. There has been no significant increase in production from these areas since the beginning of the month [3]. - A total of 22 central safety production assessment teams will be deployed throughout November to enforce safety production responsibilities, which is expected to continue limiting coal production [4]. Demand Side - The onset of centralized heating in northern regions has led to an upward trend in daily coal consumption. The China Electricity Council predicts that electricity consumption growth in Q4 2025 will exceed that of Q3, with an estimated total electricity consumption of approximately 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours for the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of around 5% [4]. - Given the tight supply-side policies and low inventory levels compared to previous years, coal supply in Q4 is unlikely to maintain last year's high levels, while demand remains stable, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap and potential for continued coal price increases [4]. Investment Insights - As of October 31, the dividend yield of the China Securities Coal Index stands at 4.68%, suggesting strong allocation value for the coal sector due to its high dividend characteristics. Investors are encouraged to consider the coal ETF (515220) as a viable investment option [4].