智通财经网·2025-11-18 01:44Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile (00175) demonstrated robust performance in Q3, with both revenue and sales increasing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from model structure optimization and export recovery, alongside effective cost control, leading to enhanced overall profitability [1][4] Performance Summary - Revenue: In Q3, Geely sold 761,000 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1%. Total revenue reached 89.19 billion yuan, up 47.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 117,000 yuan, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-on-year and a 6.1% increase quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, total vehicle sales were 2.169 million, up 45.6% year-on-year, with revenue of 239.48 billion yuan, an increase of 26.4% year-on-year [1][2] - Expenses: After adjustments, the sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratios for Q2 2025 were 6.0%, 1.5%, and 4.9%, respectively, showing a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, 0.4 percentage points, and 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - Profit: The gross profit margin for Q3 was 16.6%. Excluding exceptional foreign exchange gains and non-financial asset losses, the actual net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 3.96 billion yuan, up 61.3% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit per vehicle for Q3 was 5,200 yuan, increasing by 13.2% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross profit margin was 16.5%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with an actual net profit of 10.62 billion yuan, an increase of 82.2% year-on-year, and a net profit per vehicle of 4,900 yuan, up 25.2% year-on-year [2][3] Operational Analysis and Outlook - Q3 performance was strong, driven by improved model structure and recovery in exports, particularly in the new energy segment. The introduction of new models like Lynk & Co 900 and Galaxy Star 8 contributed to higher ASP. However, the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles and the launch of lower-margin models like Galaxy A7 led to a slight decline in gross margin quarter-on-quarter, reflecting increased unit costs. Despite this, the company maintained effective cost control, with expense ratios decreasing across the board [3] - Looking ahead, Q4 is expected to continue the strong performance. The new energy segment is anticipated to maintain a positive trend in volume, price, and profit, with new models like Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9 set to complete their delivery cycles, further improving model structure and releasing scale effects. The traditional business segment is also expected to remain stable, with exports rebounding and fuel vehicle upgrades maintaining steady performance [3] Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The outlook for the company's fundamentals remains positive, with strong product development capabilities and a robust new vehicle cycle. The company is expected to benefit from low costs, popular models, and a strong new vehicle cycle, making it a favorable investment opportunity in the autonomous vehicle sector. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 remains unchanged at 16.6 billion, 19.68 billion, and 24 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 10.45, 8.81, and 7.24. The "buy" rating is maintained [4]