美联储“内战”激化，主席热门人选支持12月降息 “二把手”却呼吁谨慎

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing increasing internal divisions regarding the potential for another interest rate cut in December, with some members advocating for further easing to prevent worsening employment conditions, while others express concerns about persistent inflation risks [2][4]. Group 1: Support for Rate Cut - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports another 25 basis point rate cut in December, citing concerns over a weakening labor market and recruitment activities [1]. - Waller emphasizes that the labor market is close to a critical level of growth stagnation and that inflation, excluding tariff impacts, is near the Fed's 2% target [1]. - He believes that a rate cut would serve as a "risk management" measure to alleviate pressure on the economy, particularly for middle- and low-income consumers [1]. Group 2: Opposition to Rate Cut - Several regional Fed presidents oppose further rate cuts, arguing that inflation remains a significant economic threat and that easing monetary policy could lead to a resurgence of inflation [2]. - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson acknowledges rising downside risks to employment but suggests caution in further rate cuts due to rates being close to neutral levels [2]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions - Boston Fed President Collins states that the threshold for further easing is high, indicating a more cautious stance [3]. - Fed Governor Milan, appointed by former President Trump, advocates for a more aggressive approach, suggesting a 50 basis point cut while at least supporting a 25 basis point reduction [3]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 is expected to be contentious, with potential for significant dissent regardless of the decision made [4][5].