数据真空加剧政策分歧 美联储12月议息会议面临“共识危机”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding the potential interest rate cut in December, exacerbated by the government shutdown affecting key economic data releases [1][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve Governor, supports a 25 basis point rate cut in December, citing core inflation nearing the 2% target and signs of labor market weakness [2][3]. - Waller emphasizes the pressure high interest rates place on middle and low-income families, impacting consumption [2]. - Philip Jefferson, the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, adopts a cautious stance, acknowledging rising employment risks but not explicitly supporting a December rate cut [4]. - John Williams, President of the New York Fed, indicates that the Fed may soon adjust its balance sheet operations due to liquidity pressures in the market [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The implied probability of a December rate cut has dropped from nearly 100% to about 40% following hawkish comments from several Fed officials [8]. - Citigroup predicts that the Fed may announce an end to quantitative tightening as early as December and initiate a new round of Treasury purchases in January 2026 to address liquidity pressures [7]. - The market is showing signs of stress, with repo rates rising above the Fed's interest on reserves balance, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5][8]. Group 3: Decision-Making Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces a rare decision-making challenge due to the lack of new economic data and growing internal divisions on interest rate policy [8][9]. - There is a potential for a high number of dissenting votes at the upcoming FOMC meeting, reflecting the stark contrast in views among committee members [9].