澳洲联储11月会议纪要：政策仍“略有限制性” 强调数据依赖与政策谨慎

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the current cash rate amid a highly uncertain economic environment, emphasizing a cautious approach reliant on the latest data [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The RBA's monetary policy meeting concluded with unanimous agreement to keep the cash rate unchanged, reflecting a careful stance in light of economic uncertainties [1]. - Since the beginning of the current easing cycle, the RBA has reduced the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, reaching the lowest level since April 2023 [1]. - The committee remains cautious regarding the timing and extent of any further rate cuts due to a tight labor market and sluggish productivity growth [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - The minutes highlight potential inflation pressures that may be greater than previously assessed, while acknowledging that the financial environment remains slightly restrictive [1]. - The economic outlook is characterized by significant two-way risks, including the possibility of stronger-than-expected demand and the risk of weak growth or a deteriorating labor market [1][2]. - The committee anticipates a slowdown in global growth by the second half of 2025 but believes the likelihood of a severe downturn has decreased [2]. Group 3: Policy Guidance and Conditions - Conditional policy guidance indicates that if demand recovers strongly, the cash rate may remain stable; conversely, if the labor market worsens significantly or economic growth disappoints, further easing may be considered [2]. - The RBA has stated that the Australian dollar is close to its estimated equilibrium level and is not currently a major policy consideration [2]. - The operational arrangements for special liquidity assistance will remain unchanged, reflecting the complexity and uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment [2].