USDA报告符合预期 豆二期货价格或维持震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows mixed trends with soybean futures experiencing a slight upward movement, indicating a potential stabilization in prices amid global supply expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, the main soybean futures contract is priced at 3769.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a minor increase of 0.16% [1]. - Brazil has shipped a total of 2.3021 million tons of soybeans in the second week of November 2025, down from 2.553 million tons in the same period last year, with an average daily shipment of 230,200 tons, which is a 71.33% increase compared to last year's daily average of 134,400 tons [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Insights - The NOPA monthly report indicates that member companies crushed 22.7647 million bushels of soybeans last month, marking a 15.1% increase from September's 19.7863 million bushels and a 13.9% increase from October 2024's 19.9943 million bushels, setting a new record for monthly crushing volume [2]. - The USDA's weekly export inspection report shows that as of November 13, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,176,307 tons, aligning with market expectations of 1 to 1.45 million tons, and the previous week's revised figure was 1,124,668 tons [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - According to the analysis from招商期货, the USDA report meets expectations, indicating marginal improvements in global supply and demand, but it is still in a phase of quantity change; the planting pace in Brazil is normal, and the overall expectation remains for large global supplies [3]. - The focus for the future will be on China's purchasing commitments for U.S. soybeans and the production levels in South America [3].