Google CEO Responds to Polymarket Bet: Are Prediction Markets Vulnerable To Celebrity Manipulation?

Core Insights - Sundar Pichai's indirect response regarding Gemini 3 has implications for prediction markets, with a 69% chance estimated for its launch on November 22 [1][4] - Polymarket has emerged as a significant platform for betting on real-world events, including tech product releases and financial market movements [2] - Google Finance will soon integrate data from Polymarket and Kalshi, enhancing user access to market-based probabilities [4] Company Developments - The upcoming launch of Gemini 3 is critical for Google as it seeks to compete more effectively with industry leaders like OpenAI [5][7] - The new model is expected to improve coding output, reasoning skills, and multimedia generation capabilities [6] - Gemini 3's release is anticipated to influence Google's competitive positioning in the AI landscape [5][7] Market Dynamics - Polymarket recently raised $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange, increasing its valuation to $9 billion [3] - The prediction market is gaining traction within Google, reflecting a broader interest in market-based forecasting [4] - The response to Gemini 3 is being closely monitored by the industry, indicating its potential impact on Google's future [5]