瑞银：预计明年中国股市将迎来又一个丰年 股价表现更多由盈利驱动

Core Viewpoint - UBS Investment Bank's China equity strategy head Wang Zonghao forecasts a prosperous year for the Chinese stock market in 2026, driven by factors such as innovation development and supportive policies for private enterprises and capital markets [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The MSCI China Index is projected to reach a target of 100 by the end of next year, indicating a 14% upside from current levels [1] - Factors supporting the market include continuous fiscal expansion, ample liquidity under loose monetary policy, and potential capital inflows from domestic and international institutional investors [1] Group 2: Earnings and Sector Focus - Earnings growth for Chinese companies is expected to be around 10% in 2026, driven by anti-involution measures and a decrease in depreciation and amortization expenses [1] - The focus is on sectors such as internet, hardware technology, and brokerage firms, while high-dividend stocks are being removed from the watchlist due to declining yields [1] Group 3: Global Influences and Technology Sector - The potential pullback in global AI-related stocks may negatively impact Chinese tech stocks; however, certain factors may mitigate this effect [1] - The correlation between Chinese and global AI stocks is lower than that of other emerging markets like South Korea, and the domestic substitution process in the tech industry is unlikely to be affected by a slowdown in the global tech sector [1] - Chinese tech stocks are still valued lower than their global peers [1]