日本经济再现负增长

Core Points - Japan's economy has contracted for the first time in six quarters, with a 1.8% annualized decline in GDP for Q3, contrary to economists' expectations of a 2.4% drop [1][2] - The contraction is attributed to the impact of U.S. tariffs, particularly on the automotive sector, which has significantly affected Japan's export industry [2] - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for FY2025 from 1.2% to 0.7% due to ongoing economic pressures from U.S. tariffs and rising prices [2] Economic Indicators - Japan's Q3 GDP decreased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, with exports down 1.2% and imports down 0.1% [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while business investment rose by 1.0% [1] - Private residential investment fell by 9.4%, contributing to a negative impact on domestic demand [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The negative GDP data may hinder the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates, despite core inflation exceeding the 2% target for three and a half years [3] - The Bank of Japan has maintained its interest rate at 0.5% since January, and the latest GDP figures may lead to a pause in rate hikes during the upcoming monetary policy meeting [3] - Analysts suggest that if upcoming economic indicators show a rebound in Q4, the Bank of Japan may consider resuming rate hikes in January [3]