鹰退鸽进！美联储“大换血”在即 降息派或借势特朗普占据上风？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, particularly the retirement of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, may lead to a more dovish stance in monetary policy, influencing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) towards potential interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announced his retirement effective February next year, leaving a key position currently held by a hawkish member [1]. - The appointment of a more dovish successor could shift the FOMC's stance towards further rate cuts, despite Bostic's non-voting status until 2027 [1]. - The Federal Reserve Board is expected to approve the reappointment of all 12 regional Fed presidents for new five-year terms starting March 1 [1]. Group 2: Potential Impact of Supreme Court Ruling - A Supreme Court ruling in January regarding the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by Trump could create another vacancy, allowing for the appointment of a new member aligned with lower interest rate policies [2]. - Analysts do not anticipate dramatic changes in the confirmation process for regional Fed presidents, despite the potential for a new appointee [2]. Group 3: Current Voting Members' Stance - All four current voting regional Fed presidents lean towards a hawkish stance, with concerns about inflation remaining high [4][5]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem support rate cuts but emphasize caution due to inflation concerns [5]. - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee express higher thresholds for further rate cuts, citing persistent inflation [5]. Group 4: Future Voting Members' Perspectives - Incoming voting members, including the Philadelphia Fed President, may lean hawkish, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressing reservations about further rate cuts [6]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lori Logan also show hesitance towards rate cuts, focusing on inflation issues [6]. Group 5: Expected Divisions within the Committee - The composition of the regional Fed presidents is expected to be more hawkish, while the Board of Governors may lean dovish, leading to potential divisions within the committee [7]. - Three distinct factions are anticipated: a dovish group led by the new Fed Chair and certain governors, a hawkish group from regional presidents, and a more neutral group comprising other governors [7].