博时宏观观点：海外变量不确定性或下降，风险偏好有望企稳

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The U.S. government has ended its shutdown, and Federal Reserve officials have signaled a hawkish stance, leading to a slight increase in U.S. Treasury yields and a decline in the Nasdaq index [1] - Global growth stocks are facing headwinds, while metal and bulk commodities have seen price increases [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - October economic data in China shows overall weakness, with industrial output, exports, and investment growth slowing down due to last year's high base and workday disruptions [1] - Retail sales growth has also declined due to the reduction of national subsidies [1] - The stock market is experiencing volatility, with the ChiNext index leading the decline, while bonds have seen a slight increase [1] Group 3: Market Strategy Insights - The bond market has shown narrow fluctuations, with recent financial and economic data indicating signs of a weakening fundamental outlook [1] - Domestic demand and investment continue to decline, and external demand remains uncertain, although the market has already priced in some of this weakness [1] - There are favorable factors for the bond market in the short term, with limited upward risk and potential for further easing if the central bank increases bond purchases [1] - Overall, there are trading opportunities in the bond market, with a recommendation to maintain flexible duration and focus on high-yield and long-duration assets [1] Group 4: A-Share Market Dynamics - Since November, the micro liquidity in the A-share market has marginally weakened, coinciding with a macroeconomic window and overseas liquidity constraints [2] - The market is undergoing a style rebalancing, characterized by three notable trends: trading themes and barbell strategies, low valuation recovery, and high-frequency price increase signals [2] - The equity market remains in a style rebalancing phase, suggesting a balanced allocation approach in the short term [2] Group 5: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is currently influenced by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - In the medium term, improvements in financial conditions and risk appetite due to preemptive rate cuts by the Fed are expected to benefit the Hong Kong market [2] Group 6: Commodity Market Analysis - In the global economic context, initial rate cuts are associated with weak oil demand, continuous supply release, inventory accumulation, and price pressure [2] - Gold prices have stabilized slightly amid increased volatility in U.S. stocks driven by AI prospects, with a positive long-term outlook for gold [2]