Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-11-18 05:23Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the shift in the bond market's core contradictions from credit contraction to asset allocation rebalancing, with a focus on the expected differences in 2025 [1] - The bond market's logic for 2025 is driven by expected differences in funding, Sino-U.S. relations, asset allocation, and central bank bond purchases [1] - The current stage of the bond market is characterized by a new focus on "prices + capital flows," with the real estate sector's impact on the economy expected to revert to levels seen around 2015 [1] Group 2 - The debt resolution plan, structured as "6+4+2," is projected to progress to a range of 46%-70% by 2026, alleviating asset scarcity pressures [1] - The logic of redistributing household wealth is gaining attention in the market [1] Group 3 - The main supports for the economy in 2025 are expected to be external demand, production driven by manufacturing, and fiscal expansion of social credit [4] - The focus areas for 2026 include modern industrial systems, technological self-reliance, and building a strong domestic market [5] - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2026 is anticipated to increase due to base effect and inflation improvement, with a fiscal deficit likely to expand moderately to support stable growth and high-quality development [5] Group 4 - The most critical variable for the bond market in 2026 will be the impact of prices throughout the year, particularly in the second and third quarters [6] - Continuous inflation is expected to create a prolonged headwind for the bond market, especially in the second and third quarters, with a focus on the rate of inflation recovery [6]