OPEC Secretary General hits back at global oil surplus reports

Core Viewpoint - The company issued a statement to clarify misrepresentations in media regarding its monthly market report, specifically denying claims of a projected surplus in the oil market for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3]. Market Report Clarification - The report does not indicate any surplus in 2026 and does not preempt any ministerial decisions that are necessary for market balance [3][4]. - The company emphasized that the report is transparent and has been issued monthly for years, and the narrative created by some media is inaccurate [2][4]. Demand and Supply Projections - The company projects robust global economic growth at around 3.1% and steady oil demand growth of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day for this year [6][9]. - For 2026, the demand is expected to remain similar at around 1.3 million barrels per day, while non-OPEC supply is projected to decline to around 6 million barrels per day growth [9][11]. Divergence in Forecasts - There is a notable divergence of about 1.8 million barrels per day between the company's forecasts and those of the IEA and EIA, the widest seen in over two decades [12][14]. - The company believes that different assumptions and modeling lead to these discrepancies, with the IEA historically being more bearish [13][15]. Long-term Demand Resilience - The company asserts that the resilience of oil demand has been underestimated, highlighting its essential role in daily life and the global economy [16][17]. - Recent reports from the IEA have aligned more closely with the company's outlook, indicating a potential shift in understanding of oil demand dynamics [17][18]. Market Conditions - Current refinery margins are at record highs, indicating strong demand and tight refining capacity [21][22]. - The market remains in backwardation, which typically suggests a tight supply situation, contradicting narratives of oversupply [23][26].