韩国家庭债务高企叠加经济回暖 央行转向观望

Group 1 - The growth rate of household debt in South Korea has slowed down in Q3 2024 due to government measures aimed at cooling the real estate market, but the overall scale remains at historically high levels [1][2] - In Q3, total household credit increased by 14.9 trillion KRW, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.8%, a decrease from the previous quarter's growth rate [1] - The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain the current interest rate level for an extended period, with some economists predicting no rate changes until the end of 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the slowdown in debt expansion, the absolute level of household debt remains high, posing systemic financial risks, leading to a cautious monetary policy stance [2] - Recent economic data, including a rise in inflation and better-than-expected GDP growth in Q3, indicate that the Bank of Korea is not in a hurry to further ease monetary policy [2] - The unemployment rate in October slightly increased to 2.6% from 2.5% in September, while manufacturing employment showed signs of recovery after four months of decline [2][3] Group 3 - The Bank of Korea's monetary policy adjustments will depend on upcoming data, with the current stance favoring a continuation of the monetary easing cycle [3] - The central bank's policy path is primarily driven by domestic conditions, although U.S. rate cuts could provide more room for independent action [3] - The final monetary policy meeting of the year is scheduled for November 27, with expectations that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged due to various factors including household debt pressure and stable employment [3]