【财经分析】前10个月财政收入延续改善态势 年末增量财政适时加力“进行时”

Core Insights - The fiscal revenue and expenditure data for the first ten months of the year shows a slight increase in public budget revenue and expenditure, indicating a continuation of improvement in fiscal conditions [1][2]. Revenue Analysis - From January to October, the total public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Tax revenue accounted for 153,364 billion yuan, growing by 1.7%, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.1% to 33,126 billion yuan [2][3]. - The central government's public budget revenue was 81,856 billion yuan, down 0.8%, while local government revenue increased by 2.1% to 104,634 billion yuan [2]. - Tax revenue growth has shown a recovery trend for eight consecutive months, with an October year-on-year growth rate of 8.6%. The overall tax revenue growth target for the year is set at 3.7% [2][3]. Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure for the same period was 225,825 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year. Central government expenditure rose by 6.3% to 34,727 billion yuan, while local government expenditure increased by 1.2% to 191,098 billion yuan [5]. - Expenditure in social security and employment grew by 9.3%, education by 4.7%, and science and technology by 5.7%, indicating a focus on social welfare and development [5][6]. Sector-Specific Insights - The growth in tax revenue was particularly strong in personal income tax, which increased by 11.5%, and stamp duty, which surged by 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 88.1% [3]. - The analysis suggests that the recovery in tax revenue is linked to improved economic conditions, including a more active capital market and the implementation of new tax reporting regulations for internet platform enterprises [3][4]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the fiscal revenue growth target for the year is likely to be achieved, supported by a moderate recovery in prices and effective fiscal policies [4]. - There is a need for increased fiscal spending in the last two months of the year, especially in infrastructure and public welfare sectors, to counteract the slower spending observed in October [5][6].