Group 1 - The US dollar index is stable around 99.50, with a slight decline of 0.06% as traders await delayed non-farm payroll data [1] - Federal Reserve officials express concerns about the labor market, with Vice Chairman Jefferson noting a "sluggish" state and hiring hesitance due to economic policy changes and AI [1][2] - The implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased to 43%, down from 62% a week ago, indicating a significant cooling of rate cut expectations [1][2] Group 2 - Following the end of the longest government shutdown in US history, traders are looking for insights into Fed monetary policy, with key speeches expected from Fed officials [2] - Economists predict an increase of approximately 50,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.3%; a weaker report could lead to selling pressure on the dollar [2] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped significantly, with current probabilities likened to a coin toss, amid persistent inflation and a softening labor market [2][3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the dollar index faced resistance below 99.60 and support above 99.25, suggesting potential for upward movement if it stabilizes above 99.35 [4] - Short-term resistance levels for the dollar index are identified at 99.65-99.70, with important support levels at 99.15-99.20 [4]
美联储降息预期降温 美元指数静待非农考验
Jin Tou Wang·2025-11-18 06:32