日本央行加息预期削弱 美元/日元跌破心理关口

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has recently depreciated significantly against the US dollar, prompting concerns from Japanese officials and speculation about potential government intervention in the currency market [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's economy contracted for the first time in six quarters during the July-September period, raising doubts about the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates in the near term [1]. - The Japanese government is planning a new round of tax reforms aimed at stimulating consumption and investment, which may create a fiscal gap of approximately 1.5 trillion yen [1]. Group 2: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate briefly fell below the psychological level of 155.00, influenced by a lack of sustained buying interest in the dollar and rising risk aversion [1][2]. - The recent decline in the yen has led to verbal interventions from Japan's Finance Minister, which, along with general risk aversion, provided slight support for the yen [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the closing above the 155.00 psychological level is seen as a new trigger point for bullish sentiment in the USD/JPY pair [3]. - The potential for the USD/JPY to break through the resistance levels of 155.60-155.65 and reach the 156.00 level is significant, while any downward correction below 155.00 may find support in the 154.50-154.45 range [3].