“大而美”东风起+AI投资独舞：大摩解码2026年美国经济“金发姑娘式软着陆”

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the OBBBA tax reform, effective from 2026, combined with the temporary inflation effects from Trump's tariffs and the ongoing AI infrastructure investments by tech giants like Microsoft and Google, will lead to a "Goldilocks" economic environment in the U.S. by 2026, characterized by moderate growth and stable inflation [1][2][3] Economic Growth Projections - The U.S. real GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2% in 2027, suggesting a gradual transition to a "Goldilocks" scenario [1][3] - The economic data from early 2025 shows a combination of rising consumer spending and adjusted GDP forecasts, enhancing the probability of a "Goldilocks" macroeconomic environment [2] Policy Impact - 2025 will be a pivotal year for the implementation of Trump's tax and fiscal policies, with a shift in focus from policy disruptions to how businesses and households adjust their spending under the OBBBA framework [3] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a series of interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026, with the federal funds rate expected to stabilize around 3.0–3.25% [3] Stock Market Outlook - 2026 is defined as the "Year of Risk Reboot," where the focus will shift from macroeconomic factors to microeconomic fundamentals, driven by fiscal and monetary stimuli alongside an unprecedented AI investment cycle [4] - The S&P 500 index is projected to rise to 7800 points, up from 6672.41 points, due to strong corporate earnings growth [4] Consumer Spending Dynamics - Consumer spending is expected to slow in the first half of 2026 due to tariff impacts but will begin to recover in the latter half, supported by the OBBBA tax cuts and fiscal spending [5][8] - The inflation effects from tariffs are predicted to dissipate, allowing for increased consumer spending, particularly among lower-income groups [8] AI Investment Contributions - AI-related investments are expected to contribute approximately 0.4 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth annually from 2026 to 2027, accounting for about 20% of overall GDP growth [12] - Non-AI investments are projected to transition from being a drag on GDP growth to making a slow recovery contribution by 2026-2027 [11] Public Investment Support - The OBBBA and previous infrastructure legislation are expected to provide stable support for public investment, contributing positively to overall investment growth in 2026 [13] Net Exports Outlook - Net exports are not expected to significantly contribute to GDP growth, with an anticipated growth rate of around 2% in 2026, influenced by ongoing trade uncertainties and the gradual decline of tariff impacts [17]