欧佩克+增产将在2026年开局按下“暂停键” 但油价或仍难言乐观

Group 1 - OPEC+ decided to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in December 2025, which aligns with market expectations, but also announced a pause on production increases for Q1 2026 [1][2] - The pause in production increases has alleviated some concerns about oversupply in the oil market, reducing the negative impact on oil prices [1][2] - OPEC+ has been gradually restoring production since April 2025, with a total increase of nearly 2.5 million barrels per day, which has exceeded market expectations and created persistent downward pressure on oil prices [1][2] Group 2 - The increase in production from OPEC+ in October, November, and December 2025 has been moderate and in line with market expectations, resulting in a weaker negative impact on the oil market [2][4] - Factors limiting the impact of production increases include some countries' inability to meet production targets and compensatory cuts from other countries, leading to discrepancies between planned and actual production increases [4] - The overall market sentiment may be slightly improved due to the pause in production increases, but global economic challenges and weak energy demand are expected to maintain pressure on the oil market [4][5] Group 3 - The oil market outlook remains pessimistic due to macroeconomic pressures, industry oversupply, and geopolitical uncertainties, with expectations of oil prices testing around $60 and $55 per barrel by the end of 2025 for Brent and WTI respectively [5] - Geopolitical risks and potential economic and financial systemic risks are identified as significant factors that could further disrupt the oil market [5]