两只“黑天鹅”，突袭

Group 1: Market Overview - Global market sentiment has rapidly deteriorated, with significant declines across major indices including a drop of over 3% in the Nikkei 225 and more than 2% in the MSCI Asia-Pacific index [1] - The cryptocurrency market has also been severely impacted, with Bitcoin falling below $90,000 and Ethereum dropping below $3,000 [1] Group 2: U.S. Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations have shifted from anticipating no rate cuts in December to a belief that there will be no cuts in the first half of next year, influenced by internal disagreements within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3] - The likelihood of a rate cut in December is now estimated at 50%, with inflation risks remaining a primary concern for the Federal Reserve [3] Group 3: Japan's Economic Impact - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has surged above 1.75%, nearing its highest level since 2008, due to expectations of a large-scale fiscal stimulus plan from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida [5][7] - Kishida's proposed stimulus plan could exceed 17 trillion yen, raising concerns about Japan's already high public debt levels [7] - Japan's economy contracted by 1.8% in the third quarter, marking its first negative growth in six quarters, primarily due to a decline in exports influenced by U.S. tariffs [7] Group 4: Global Liquidity Concerns - The rise in Japanese government bond yields is closely linked to global liquidity, affecting capital flows and potentially leading to increased global borrowing costs [8] - Analysts warn that sustained increases in Japanese bond yields could lead to a "global financial apocalypse," tightening liquidity and dragging global growth down to 1% [8]