黄金时间·每日论金：关注延迟发布的经济数据本周金价或高位偏强震荡 关键支撑3990美元

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price experienced significant volatility last week, with a peak of $4245.22 per ounce and a low of $3997.20 per ounce, driven primarily by changes in Federal Reserve policy and market sentiment [1]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Price Fluctuations - The first factor is the hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, which suppressed interest rate cut expectations, causing market bets on a December rate cut to drop from over 70% to below 40% [1]. - The second factor is profit-taking by investors, as gold prices rose over $1000 from August to October, leading to a sell-off as speculative trading sentiment waned after the U.S. government shutdown ended [1]. - The third factor is technical overbought conditions, with gold prices breaking above $4200 triggering programmatic selling after falling below key support levels [1]. - The fourth factor is a temporary decrease in safe-haven demand, as recent progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations and reduced geopolitical tensions led some investors to shift funds to U.S. Treasuries, applying pressure on gold prices [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Gold Market - The core influencing factors for the gold market will continue to be the Federal Reserve's policy dynamics and changes in geopolitical situations, particularly the ongoing Middle East conflict, which remains a key variable for gold price support [2]. - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's October monetary policy meeting minutes and speeches from key officials will be closely watched for insights on inflation assessments and discussions regarding rate cuts [2]. - Delayed economic data may also play a critical role in influencing rate cut expectations and, consequently, gold price fluctuations [2]. - Global central bank gold purchases are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [2]. - The gold price is anticipated to exhibit a volatile but generally strong trend this week, supported by both geopolitical risks and expectations of monetary easing [2].