中金：北美缺电预期持续 有望推动我国机械设备等相关领域需求释放

Core Viewpoint - North America is facing a systemic electricity shortage driven by the expansion of AI computing power, changes in manufacturing patterns, and electrification, leading to increased electricity demand and pressure on supply [1][2]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and Supply Dynamics - The rapid growth of AI is a major driver of increased electricity demand, with significant investments in data centers expected to continue [1][2]. - The aging power grid in North America and the retirement of old coal and gas projects are exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance, with a projected annual increase in electricity load exceeding 30GW over the next five years [2]. - The net electricity imports in the U.S. have surged by 125% year-on-year, indicating a rapidly expanding electricity gap [2]. Group 2: Impact on Electricity Prices and Industries - The tightening electricity supply has led to a 6% increase in retail electricity prices in the U.S. compared to the previous year, with potential implications for corporate electricity costs and profitability [2]. - The ongoing electricity shortage is expected to benefit various sectors in China, including machinery, electrical equipment, photovoltaic new energy, and non-ferrous metals, as demand from North America increases [4]. Group 3: Opportunities for Chinese Companies - The demand for gas turbines is expected to rise as they are seen as the optimal short-term solution for powering data centers, benefiting companies like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi [4]. - The need for upgrading the aging power grid in North America presents opportunities for Chinese electrical equipment manufacturers, with a projected supply gap of 66% for transformers in the region [5]. - The increasing demand for energy storage solutions is anticipated as a response to the high power density and fluctuating electricity needs of AI data centers, creating opportunities for Chinese companies with technological advantages [5][6]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The aluminum demand for cables in North America is expected to rise due to the accelerated construction of the power grid, which may support the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry [7]. - The transition to high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and solid-state transformers (SST) is seen as a favorable trend for companies with advanced technology and project experience in these areas [6].