智通财经网·2025-11-18 07:57Core Insights - The global storage chip contract prices have experienced a rare nonlinear surge since Q2 2025, driven by the high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI accelerators like NVIDIA's H100 [1] - Major storage manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are shifting production capacity from traditional PC DRAM and NAND to more profitable HBM, tightening supply for traditional PC DRAM and NAND [1][2] - Companies like Lenovo and Apple are viewed as exceptions that may benefit from this storage price uptrend due to their strong customer bases and supply chain management capabilities [1][3] Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand for high-performance SSDs and HBM has surged due to AI data centers, leading manufacturers to prioritize production for high-margin products, which has squeezed the supply of mid-range DDR and client SSDs [2] - In 2025, the global DRAM market revenue is expected to exceed $200 billion, with HBM contributing over half of the profit growth despite accounting for less than 30% of the market [2] - The average storage cost increase of 20% for an $800 laptop could raise the bill of materials (BOM) by $30-$50, potentially eroding 3-6 percentage points of gross margin if manufacturers cannot pass on costs [2] Impact on Consumer-Oriented Manufacturers - Dell, HP, and Acer, which heavily rely on the consumer market, face significant profit margin threats due to their sensitivity to storage price increases [3] - The average selling price of global consumer PCs is projected to be around $620 in 2025, making these companies vulnerable to price sensitivity in a highly competitive market [3] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Dell and HP are the most sensitive to rising storage prices, predicting a 2-4 percentage point decline in their PC gross margins for FY 2026 [3] Resilience of Lenovo and Apple - Lenovo and Apple are better positioned to withstand the pressures of rising storage prices due to their strong supply chain control and customer structure [4][10] - Lenovo's market share exceeds 25%, with over 65% of its revenue coming from enterprise and government clients, allowing it to pass on costs more effectively [6][7] - Apple maintains absolute control over its supply chain, benefiting from long-term contracts that ensure priority access to components, which helps it manage costs effectively [9] Competitive Advantages - Lenovo's procurement strategy, which includes multi-regional sourcing, enhances its bargaining power and allows it to secure better prices and delivery guarantees [8] - Apple's BOM structure has a lower storage cost percentage, allowing it to absorb price increases more easily, and its strong brand allows for higher pricing flexibility [9][10] - Both companies are expected to maintain or even expand their market share during this "super cycle" of storage price increases, leading to greater industry differentiation [10]