供应端压力持续显现 白糖期价连跌三日

Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - As of November 17, 325 sugar mills in India have commenced operations, significantly up from 144 mills during the same period last year. The cane crushing volume has reached 12.8 million tons, compared to 9.1 million tons last year [1] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons for the 2025/26 season, driven by a production increase of 3.15% to 181.77 million tons, while consumption is expected to grow only 0.6% to 180.14 million tons [1] - China's sugar imports in October reached 750,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 39%. From January to October, total sugar imports amounted to 3.9 million tons, reflecting a 14% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Price Trends - According to Zhongyuan Futures, supply-side pressures are evident with high sugar production levels in Brazil, India, and Thailand. Domestic production estimates for the new crushing season have been raised to 11.7 million tons, with good cane growth in Guangxi and delayed crushing impacting spot prices. Current prices have fallen below previous support levels, potentially testing the 5,430-5,450 range [2] - Everbright Futures reports that Brazil's latest bi-weekly crushing data shows a significant month-on-month decline in sugar production, although it remains higher than last year. In Guangxi, three sugar mills have started operations, and traders are quoting new sugar prices moderately. The market lacks new drivers in the short term, with prices under pressure and expected to remain within a weak range [3]