内外盘基本面同步转弱 沪铅有望继续下探

Core Viewpoint - The lead futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight decline, influenced by supply shortages and demand dynamics in the battery sector [1][2] Supply Summary - Lead concentrate shortages are causing many electrolytic lead enterprises to resume production at lower-than-expected levels, although imports of crude lead and lead concentrate are anticipated to increase, gradually resolving raw material issues [1] - The recovery of recycled lead production is contributing to a slow return to balance in the overall supply [1] Demand Summary - The operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises has been increasing as maintenance and production halts due to high lead prices are lifted, but terminal consumption in the automotive battery market remains weak, leading to cautious purchasing by dealers [1] Inventory Summary - As of November 17, LME lead inventory reached 266,100 tons, an increase of 43,700 tons (19.62%) from the previous day, with a cumulative increase of 63,900 tons (31.61%) over the past week and 15,700 tons (6.28%) over the past month [1] Market Outlook - The high lead prices are causing downstream reluctance, while smelters are expected to increase output due to favorable profit margins. The pressure from inventory accumulation is significant, with both domestic and international fundamentals weakening [2] - Short-term expectations suggest a potential decline towards the cost support level, with a focus on the 60-day moving average support at 17,100 yuan/ton [2]