【环球财经】日元短线反弹但难以持续 日本央行行长：密切关注外汇波动影响

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has recently experienced volatility, hitting a nine-month low, prompting concerns from the Japanese Finance Minister about potential market interventions and increasing safe-haven demand for the yen [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently around 155.10, having reached a high of 155.37, the highest since February 4 [1]. - The Japanese Finance Minister has expressed caution regarding the "one-sided rapid fluctuations" in the foreign exchange market, indicating a higher likelihood of intervention [1]. - The Bank of Japan's Governor stated that the central bank is adjusting monetary support to achieve a stable 2% inflation target, closely monitoring the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the economy [1]. Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - The narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. due to potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may support the yen, while rising domestic long-term interest rates could pressure the yen [2]. - The Japanese government is considering a significant economic stimulus plan of approximately $149 billion, raising concerns about increasing national debt and steepening the yield curve of Japanese government bonds [2]. - Japan's unexpected GDP decline in Q3 has led to skepticism about the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates in the short term, adding further pressure on the yen [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Recommendations - Investors are worried that the government's fiscal policies may exert downward pressure on the yen, with expectations that the government will tolerate a moderate weakening of the yen to support corporate profits and wage growth [2]. - Barclays economists suggest that further fiscal expansion will likely keep the USD/JPY at elevated levels due to the yen's sensitivity to fiscal risks [2]. - Goldman Sachs warns that the market's sensitivity to fiscal issues has increased, indicating that any policy adjustments could lead to significant volatility in the yen [3].