欧盟下调明年欧元区增长预期

Core Points - The European Commission has revised down its growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2026 due to higher-than-expected tariffs imposed by the US on EU goods [1] - The Eurozone's growth is projected to be 1.1% in 2026, significantly lagging behind the US at 2.1% and China at 4.2% [1] - The Eurozone's economic growth for 2023 is now expected to reach 1.3%, up from a previous forecast of 0.9% [1] - The Commission attributes the improved growth outlook for 2023 to stronger private consumption and investment [1] Economic Outlook - The Eurozone is expected to maintain moderate growth in the coming quarters, supported by a resilient labor market and improved purchasing power [1] - The growth forecast for 2026 has been adjusted from 1.4% to 1.2% due to new tariff assumptions, with the US tariff rate on most EU goods increased from 10% to 15% [1] - The overall inflation in the Eurozone is projected to slow to 1.9% by 2026, slightly above the previous estimate of 1.7% but still within the European Central Bank's target of 2% [2] Employment and Trade - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is expected to decrease from 6.3% in 2023 to 6.2% in 2026, reflecting a long-term trend of declining labor force participation [2] - The European Commission highlights that the Eurozone's average tariffs are still lower compared to economies like China and India, providing a relative advantage for EU companies [2] - However, the higher US tariffs are expected to negatively impact Eurozone exports in 2026 [2] Country-Specific Insights - Germany's growth forecast for 2023 has been revised from zero to 0.2%, with a projected growth of 1.2% in 2026, bolstered by a significant investment plan totaling €1 trillion [3] - Despite the positive outlook, Germany's economy remains highly dependent on exports, which may be adversely affected by trade tensions [3] - France's growth for 2023 is expected to reach 0.7%, with a 2026 growth forecast of 0.9%, down from a previous estimate of 1.3% due to domestic economic uncertainties [3]