瑞银发布2026年展望：中国股市将迎来又一个丰年

Core Viewpoint - UBS Investment Bank's China equity strategy head Wang Zonghao projects a target of 100 for the MSCI China Index by the end of 2026, indicating a potential upside of 14% from current levels, driven by favorable market conditions and supportive policies [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience a prosperous year in 2025, supported by developments in innovative sectors such as AI, ongoing support for private enterprises and capital markets, fiscal expansion, and ample liquidity under a loose monetary policy [1] - Potential inflows from domestic and foreign institutional investors are anticipated to continue, further bolstering the market [1] Group 2: Earnings and Growth Projections - The projected growth includes a 5% increase in revenue, consistent with nominal GDP growth, and a 10% increase in earnings per share [1] Group 3: Sector and Stock Preferences - In terms of style and sector allocation, the strategy includes not only dividend stocks but also some "overseas" stocks, which are expected to see accelerated revenue and profit growth in 2025, outpacing the overall market [1] - The outlook remains positive for technology and internet stocks, as well as domestic brokerage firms [1] Group 4: Impact of Global Trends - Despite potential pullbacks in global AI-related stocks that may affect Chinese tech stocks, certain factors could mitigate this impact, such as the lower correlation of Chinese stocks with global AI stocks compared to other emerging markets like South Korea [1] - The domestic substitution process in the technology sector is unlikely to be hindered by any slowdown in the global tech industry, and Chinese tech stocks are still valued lower than their global peers [1]