Zhong Zheng Wang·2025-11-18 11:30Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to reach a cyclical peak in spring 2026, with a comprehensive market rally potentially triggered by the sequential emergence of "policy bottom, market bottom, and economic bottom" around mid-2026 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - By mid-2026, the supply in midstream manufacturing may clear, leading to a noticeable increase in sectors where capacity growth is lower than demand growth [1] - The upcoming market rally will be supported by improvements in the fundamental cycle, strengthening trends in emerging industries, shifts in resident asset allocation towards equities, and the enhancement of China's global influence [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Before spring 2026, technology growth stocks may experience minor rebounds; from spring to mid-year, high-dividend defensive stocks are expected to outperform [1] - After mid-2026, a "cyclical foundation with growth leading" approach is anticipated, with the "policy bottom" catalyzing cyclical sectors to lead index breakthroughs, while the trends in technology industries and the enhancement of manufacturing global influence will be the main market themes [1] Group 3: Key Investment Themes - Three major structural themes to focus on in 2026 include: 1. Recovery trading sectors such as cyclical Alpha, basic chemicals, and industrial metals 2. Technology industry trend sectors including AI supply chain, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry 3. Sectors related to the enhancement of manufacturing influence, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2]