美联储降息分歧加剧 市场预期债市走势背离

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding the potential interest rate cut in December, with some officials advocating for a cut due to a weak labor market and consumer pressures, while others urge caution due to concerns about inflation and incomplete data [1] - The upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 has seen a significant drop in the market's expectation for a rate cut, from 90% at the beginning of the month to approximately 45% currently, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards maintaining current rates [1] Group 2 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has slightly fallen below the critical support level of 4.12, showing a divergence from the declining rate cut expectations, yet overall indicators like MACD and KDJ still suggest a bullish trend [2] - The recent drop in yields despite the cooling rate cut expectations highlights strong demand for Treasuries, contrasting with the yield increase observed on the day the Fed announced a 25 basis point cut, which was influenced by higher market risk appetite and the cessation of balance sheet reduction [2]