深V反弹，现货黄金一度跌破4000美元，发生了什么？

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices experienced a significant drop, briefly falling below $4000 per ounce, marking the first decline since November 10, with a daily drop exceeding 1% [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 18, London spot gold was reported at $4044.87 per ounce, down 0.01%, while COMEX gold fell 0.8% to $4042.1 per ounce [1] - In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold main contract closed at 918.52 yuan, down 1.33%, and Au99.99 in the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell to 916.96 yuan, a decrease of 1.55% [3] - Major domestic gold jewelry brands also adjusted their prices downward, with notable declines in prices for 周生生, 周大福, 老庙, and 老凤祥 [3][4] Group 2: Economic Factors - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is estimated at 42.9%, with a 57.1% chance of maintaining current rates [5] - Analysts suggest that recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have corrected overly optimistic rate cut expectations, contributing to the decline in gold prices [5] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced safe-haven demand, further impacting gold's market performance [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a generally optimistic long-term outlook for gold, citing ongoing central bank purchases and the potential for renewed rate cut expectations if economic indicators worsen [6][7] - The current gold bull market is believed to be ongoing, with historical comparisons suggesting that the price increases and duration are still below previous major cycles [6][7] - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by continued asset diversification among private investors and central bank purchases [7]