【环球财经】通胀降温 加拿大央行近期料将保持利率稳定

Core Points - Canada's inflation rate fell to 2.2% in October, down from 2.4% in September, primarily due to declining gasoline prices and easing food inflation [1] - Food price inflation decreased from 4.0% to 3.4%, while gasoline prices plummeted by 9.4% year-on-year, significantly widening from a 4.1% decline in September [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding the impact of carbon tax, improved to 2.7% from the previous 2.9%, although it remains above the overall inflation level [1] Summary by Sections Inflation Data - The October inflation data indicates a continued decline, providing a strong rationale for the Bank of Canada to maintain current interest rates [1] - Economists suggest that the basic trend of inflation should only cause limited concern for the Bank of Canada [1][2] Interest Rate Outlook - Most economists expect interest rates to remain stable for the remainder of the year, given the high threshold for further rate cuts indicated by policymakers [2] - The Bank of Canada previously anticipated inflation would return to its 2% target, and the current data aligns with these expectations [2] Currency Dynamics - The USD/CAD exchange rate remained stable around 1.4025, supported by the current environment favoring the USD against the CAD [2] - The softening of oil prices continues to exert downward pressure on the commodity-linked CAD, providing additional support for the USD [2][3] Economic Context - The USD is in a relatively strong position compared to the CAD, with recent cautious yet hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials regarding further easing [3] - Concerns about the momentum of the US economy, exacerbated by a record government shutdown delaying data releases, have led to a cautious stance among USD bulls [3]