Kinsale Capital (US:KNSL) ZACKS·2025-11-18 14:51Core Insights - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) shares have decreased by 17.1% over the past year, underperforming the industry growth of 6.8% [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $9.07 billion, with an average trading volume of 0.2 million shares over the last three months [1] Valuation - Kinsale Capital shares are currently trading at a price-to-book value of 4.86X, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.5X, indicating overvaluation [2] - Comparatively, American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) trades at a premium of 2.45, while Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) and CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) trade below the industry average at 1.5 and 1.1, respectively [3] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a 17.8% year-over-year increase in Kinsale Capital's earnings per share for 2025, with revenues expected to reach $1.86 billion, reflecting a 17.1% improvement [4] - For 2026, earnings per share and revenues are estimated to grow by 9.2% and 7.8%, respectively, compared to 2025 estimates [4] - Earnings have grown by 44.3% over the past five years, surpassing the industry average of 21.6%, with a long-term growth rate expected at 14.8% compared to the industry average of 7.3% [5] Earnings Performance - Kinsale Capital has consistently exceeded earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 10.35% [6] Return Metrics - The company boasts a return on equity (ROE) of 25.6%, significantly higher than the industry average of 8%, indicating effective use of shareholders' funds [10] - Kinsale Capital's return on invested capital (ROIC) stands at 22.4%, compared to the industry's 6.1%, reflecting strong capital efficiency [11] Analyst Sentiment - Among analysts covering Kinsale Capital, eight out of nine have raised their 2025 earnings estimates, while five have lowered their 2026 estimates, resulting in a 2.6% increase in the 2025 consensus estimate and a 0.2% decrease for 2026 [12] Price Target - The average price target for Kinsale Capital, based on short-term estimates from nine analysts, is $479.89 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 23% from the last closing price [13] Market Positioning - Kinsale Capital is well-positioned in the excess and surplus (E&S) market, benefiting from high retention rates and improved underwriting results compared to the broader property and casualty (P&C) industry [14] - The company targets small and medium-sized accounts, aiming for low double-digit rate increases across its business [15] Operational Efficiency - Kinsale Capital leverages proprietary technology to enhance its expense ratio and operational efficiency, maintaining a free cash flow conversion rate of over 85% [16][18] - The company has a strong dividend history, with a seven-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.1% from 2017 to 2024, and has authorized a $100 million share repurchase program [20] Investment Appeal - Kinsale Capital's combination of high growth potential and low combined ratio positions it as an attractive investment option, despite its current overvaluation [21]