美股“七巨头”承压 港股科企AI投入节奏受关注

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing high investment in AI by US tech giants is facing valuation pressure, leading to increased scrutiny and debate over the potential AI bubble, while Hong Kong's internet companies are becoming a focal point for investors [1][2]. Group 1: US Tech Sector Performance - The US tech sector has seen significant gains this year, with the Nasdaq 100 index reaching new highs, driven by major players like Nvidia and Apple. However, as of November, the sector is under pressure, with a notable drop of over 2% in the US tech giants index on November 13 [1]. - Wall Street executives from firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have issued warnings about potential market corrections, predicting a 10% to 20% pullback in the next 12 to 24 months [1][2]. - Concerns about the fundamentals of tech stocks have been raised, particularly by prominent short-seller Michael Burry, who warns of a possible AI bubble and suggests that some companies may be overstating profits through accounting practices [1][2]. Group 2: AI Investment and Market Sentiment - There is a divided opinion on whether the AI sector is in a bubble, with some analysts believing that AI investments are still in a mid-term phase with strong long-term potential, while others see recent market corrections as a reflection of adjusted profit expectations [2]. - The risk of a tech bubble in the US is seen as more related to macroeconomic and political cycles rather than stock fundamentals, with some analysts suggesting that the bubble may still have room to grow until 2026 [2]. Group 3: Hong Kong Tech Sector Developments - In the context of ongoing debates abroad, the development cycle of the AI industry in Hong Kong is under scrutiny, particularly during the earnings season where capital investment and business progress are key evaluation metrics [3]. - Tencent Holdings reported a revenue of 192.9 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a 15% year-on-year increase, while capital expenditure decreased by 24% due to supply chain impacts. The company has significantly increased its AI R&D investment, achieving record-high R&D expenses in Q3 [3]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Tech Index is at a low point, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5, which is below that of other major global tech indices [3][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The tech sector in Hong Kong is expected to face challenges regarding valuation elasticity and earnings stability amid increased external market volatility. The discussion around the AI bubble continues, with short-term fluctuations likely to intensify [4]. - Despite the ongoing debates, the foundational infrastructure for AI is still developing, and downstream applications are gradually emerging. Major companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta maintain strong free cash flow, indicating no immediate pressure on static valuations and cash flows [4].