明年年中或迎全面行情 看好科技和制造业板块

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for reform and development in China's economy and capital markets, with a potential full-scale rally in A-shares driven by technological trends and the enhancement of China's manufacturing global influence [1][4]. Economic Growth Drivers - New factors and assets, such as knowledge, technology, data, computing power, and talent, are becoming the new drivers of economic growth, moving away from the previous reliance on investment and exports [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets [1]. Capital Market Development - The capital market's role in resource allocation will be further enhanced, with reforms expected to improve market inclusivity and adaptability [2]. - The focus on systemic and effective reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is anticipated to yield significant dividends for the capital market [2][3]. Investment Opportunities - The upcoming reforms are expected to create substantial opportunities, particularly in areas such as unified market construction, new productive forces development, and financial system reforms [3]. - The A-share market is projected to reach a peak in early 2026, with a potential comprehensive rally by mid-2026, supported by fundamental improvements and the strengthening of emerging industries [4]. Market Trends and Strategies - The market is expected to experience a transition from defensive high-dividend stocks to cyclical and growth stocks, with a focus on sectors like basic chemicals, industrial metals, AI, and renewable energy [4]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include cyclical recovery sectors, technology-driven industries, and manufacturing sectors that enhance China's global influence [4].