Lack Of Data Making Fed's Job Harder, But No Doubt Economy Is Slowing

Market Overview - Major indexes remained flat for the week ending November 14, continuing the weakness observed in November, with the small cap Russell 2000 retreating from its late October peak [1] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq also showed similar trends, indicating a broader market stagnation [1] Performance of Key Stocks - Among the "Magnificent 7," three stocks (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple) performed well, while the other four (Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Google) experienced losses last week [4] - Notably, five of the Magnificent 7 reached their peaks between October 28 and November 11, suggesting a potential plateau in their performance [4] Economic Indicators - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has lost 25% of its staff, leading to uncertainty in the release of key economic data, including the jobs report for September and potentially the October inflation report [5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to have limited information for its December meetings, with market odds for an interest rate reduction now around 50%, down from 95% a month ago [6] Labor Market Conditions - Private sector data indicates a loss of over 11,000 jobs per week in October, with job cuts reported at 153,000, marking a 183% increase from September [10] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 4.5%, up from 4.3% in August [10] Consumer Sentiment and Spending - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3 in November, the second lowest in the series' history, indicating consumer distress [13] - Concerns about job security are high, with nearly 23% fearing job loss over the next five years and 43% in New York fearing loss within the next year [13] Credit Market Trends - Credit card delinquencies are at record highs, with 5.33% of outstanding balances now 30+ days past due, the highest level since 2014 [10] - Student loan delinquencies have reached 14%, reflecting broader financial strain among consumers [11] Economic Growth Projections - With consumption accounting for 70% of GDP, Q4 GDP growth is expected to be slight, and Q1 could potentially show negative growth if current conditions persist [14] - Financial markets appear to be pausing after significant gains over the past two years, possibly awaiting the realization of AI-related profits [15]