Appleseed Fund 2025 Annual Shareholder Letter

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market has seen prices surge to $4,250/ounce, marking a 60% increase year-to-date, with expectations for continued outperformance through the decade [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Bullish Outlook on Gold - Foreign central banks are net buyers of gold, reversing a trend of net selling prior to the 2008 financial crisis, driven by concerns over U.S. Treasury bonds and geopolitical tensions [8]. - Persistent inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, with expectations for re-acceleration due to factors like a depreciating dollar and high fiscal deficits, leading investors to seek scarce assets like gold [8]. - The relative geopolitical and economic power of the U.S. is declining, with its share of global GDP dropping to 12.7% from 35% in 1944, prompting countries to trade in local currencies and increasing gold's appeal as a reserve asset [8]. - Gold is becoming more useful as a neutral reserve asset, with a growing share of international trade being conducted in local currencies and imbalances settled in gold [8]. - Western investors are under-allocated in gold compared to Asian investors, with U.S. family offices holding only about 1% in commodities, indicating potential for increased demand as allocations shift [8]. - Physical gold stores in the West are low and declining, with significant quantities moving to Eastern countries, which could lead to price increases as shortages develop [8]. - The global Debt/GDP ratio is at an all-time high, with countries likely to alleviate debt issues through currency depreciation against gold, supporting higher gold prices [8]. - Trust in U.S. institutions, including the Federal Reserve, is declining, which historically correlates with rising gold prices [8]. - The Trump administration's desire for a lower dollar is evident, with the dollar index declining by about 10% in 2025, enhancing gold's performance in dollar terms [8]. - Gold remains inexpensive relative to the U.S. monetary base, with the value of gold owned by the U.S. government representing only 15% of the monetary base, suggesting significant upside potential [9]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Strategy - The Appleseed Fund Institutional Class generated a 19.14% absolute return over the 12 months ending September 30, 2025, outperforming the Morningstar Global Markets Index [12]. - The fund has been positioned for an inflationary, slow-growth economy, with a cautious approach that has limited investment returns during a strong stock market rally [12]. - The fund's current asset allocation favors sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and agriculture, with increased exposure to companies with non-U.S. dollar cash flows [15].