高工锂电董事长张小飞：锂电出货量，未来10年或增3倍

Core Insights - The lithium battery industry in China is expected to see a significant increase in shipment volume, with projections indicating over threefold growth from 2025 to 2035 [1][3] - The solid-state battery sector is entering a critical phase of GWh-level capacity construction between 2027 and 2030, driven by advancements in technology and increasing application scenarios [1][6] Industry Growth and Demand - The demand for power batteries and energy storage is robust, prompting a new round of lithium battery expansion [3][4] - By 2025, China's lithium battery shipments are projected to exceed 1.7 TWh, with power lithium battery shipments surpassing 1.05 TWh and energy storage lithium battery shipments reaching 600 GWh [3][4] - The midstream materials segment, including separators and electrolytes, is also expected to see over threefold growth from 2025 to 2035 [3] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing price increases due to supply-demand imbalances, with predictions of price hikes for various components, including a 5%-10% increase in energy storage cell prices and significant rises in costs for materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate [4][5] - The industry is transitioning from scale expansion to value creation, driven by market demands for high-performance and safe batteries [5] Solid-State Battery Development - The solid-state battery industry is categorized into four development phases, with the current phase (2023-2027) focusing on initial market applications and the subsequent phase (2027-2040) expected to see rapid market growth [7][8] - Over 20 domestic companies are currently building pilot lines for solid-state batteries, with a shift from technology performance to customer development and cost control becoming crucial [6][7] Future Market Outlook - The solid-state battery market is anticipated to grow rapidly, particularly in energy storage and electric vehicles, with global shipments expected to exceed 900 GWh by 2035 [8][9] - The upcoming years (2025-2026) are projected to be a peak period for the construction of solid-state battery capacity, especially in the energy storage sector [9][11]