创新行业将成为经济高质量发展新引擎

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 marks the beginning of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and is seen as a crucial opportunity for economic structural optimization and transformation of development momentum amid rapid technological and industrial changes [1] Economic Outlook - Multiple institutions predict that China's economy will maintain stable growth within a reasonable range in 2026, with a solid foundation for high-quality development [2] - Economic resilience is expected to continue, with moderate growth in consumption and a recovery in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [2][3] - Investment in broad infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to remain strong, with stable growth in consumer demand [2] Innovation and New Economy - The "new economy" sectors, including artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and biomedicine, are projected to experience rapid growth in 2026, becoming key drivers of high-quality economic development [2][3] - It is estimated that by 2024, innovation-driven "new economy" sectors will account for 15% to 20% of China's nominal GDP and contribute approximately one-fourth of GDP growth from 2020 to 2024 [3] - The private sector's capital expenditure in high-tech fields is expected to accelerate, significantly boosting manufacturing investments compared to 2025 [3] Policy Support - The policy direction for the next five years is becoming clearer, with a focus on enhancing technological self-reliance and achieving high-quality "zeroing" in critical areas [4] - A new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan aimed at supporting the digital economy and artificial intelligence has been fully deployed, which is expected to drive faster development in these sectors in 2026 [4] External Environment - Experts believe that the China-U.S. trade relationship is likely to stabilize in 2026, with a reduction in the "disorderliness" of U.S. policies, leading to improved export growth for China [5][6] - The global economic environment is expected to become more favorable, with synchronized fiscal and monetary policies in many countries, which will help reduce investment risks and boost external demand [5][6] - China's exports to the U.S. may see significant growth due to base effects from 2025, while exports to other countries are expected to maintain rapid growth driven by companies exploring non-U.S. markets [6] Conclusion - Overall, 2026 is positioned as a year for balancing stable growth, promoting innovation, and optimizing structure, with the potential for qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in China's economy, supported by policy, industrial upgrades, and an improved external environment [7]