生猪暴涨昙花一现？猪价或将大跌、暴跌？

Price Trends - The current mainstream pig prices are showing a weak downward trend, with significant price drops observed in both major sales and supply areas across the country [1] - In mid-October, pig prices rebounded strongly in northern regions, with the national average price rising from 11.17 yuan/kg to 12.49 yuan/kg, an increase of 11.8% driven by factors such as farmers holding back pigs and seasonal consumption recovery [1] - However, by early November, prices began to decline again, with many regions experiencing price drops due to increased supply from large-scale farms and slaughterhouses taking advantage of the situation to lower prices [1] Demand Factors - Demand for fresh pork has been weak entering November, with a lack of festive atmosphere and limited consumer spending, particularly in urban dining, leading to overall poor pork sales [1][2] - Although the upcoming腌腊 season may boost demand, the overall growth in consumption remains limited, as younger consumers prefer alternatives like chicken breast and older consumers reduce fatty meat intake for health reasons [2] Supply Issues - The high number of breeding sows (40.38 million) and improved breeding efficiency (over 24 piglets per sow annually) indicate an oversupply of pigs in the market [1] - Farmers are holding back heavier pigs, which could lead to a price crash if there is a concentrated release of these pigs into the market [3] Industry Challenges - The process of reducing production capacity is slow, as lower feed costs prolong the time farmers can endure losses, meaning that even if sows are eliminated now, supply reductions may not be seen until the second half of 2026 [4] - The government's frozen pork storage program is limited in scale (35,000 tons), providing only short-term price stabilization, with long-term improvements relying on supply-demand dynamics [5] Market Outlook - In the short term, pig prices are expected to continue fluctuating downward, with attention needed on the slaughtering pace of large pig enterprises and disease risks [6] - In the long term, if production capacity continues to decrease alongside seasonal demand recovery, a turning point may be reached in the second half of 2026 [7]