己内酰胺价格跌至四年新低

Core Insights - The caprolactam market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance due to substantial capacity expansion over the past few years, leading to intensified competition and a continuous decline in product prices [1][2] - As of November 3, the market price for caprolactam has dropped to 8,050 yuan per ton, marking a 28% decrease from the year's high of 11,225 yuan [1][2] - The industry is expected to face ongoing price declines in 2025, with analysts noting a pattern of "high opening, continuous decline" in market trends [2] Price Trends - From 2020 to 2024, the caprolactam industry's capacity is projected to increase from 4.33 million tons to 6.95 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.56% [2] - The price of caprolactam peaked at 11,225 yuan in mid-February 2023 but has since entered a prolonged downward trend due to weak downstream demand and external market pressures [2] - Despite temporary price increases from May to August due to favorable factors, the overall price trajectory remains downward due to significant de-stocking pressures in downstream sectors [2] Regulatory Impact - New EU regulations on per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have imposed strict limits on residual solvent content in caprolactam products, exacerbating domestic supply-demand mismatches and further driving down prices [3] Industry Profitability - The persistent low prices have severely impacted profitability across the entire caprolactam supply chain, with significant losses reported in both upstream and downstream sectors [4] - As of mid-November, the caprolactam industry is facing substantial losses, with per-ton losses exceeding 600 yuan in the latter half of the year [4] - The entire supply chain is experiencing negative margins, with upstream cyclohexanone and downstream nylon 6 products also reporting losses [4] Supply Adjustment Measures - In response to the challenging market conditions, caprolactam producers are implementing voluntary supply adjustments, including a 20% production cut to alleviate inventory and price pressures [5][6] - The industry is transitioning from a state of excess inventory to a more balanced supply-demand situation, with expectations of further price stabilization and potential increases in the near future [6]