美债海外需求维持高位 日本连续9个月买入 中国持仓保持稳定

Core Viewpoint - The latest TIC report from the U.S. Treasury reveals a decline in U.S. Treasury holdings by major foreign investors, with a total decrease of $13.6 billion in September 2025, bringing the total to $9.25 trillion, after four consecutive months of increases [1] Group 1: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities - Major foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities showed mixed actions; Japan continued to increase its holdings, buying $8.9 billion in August and $29 billion in September [1] - The UK increased its holdings by $5 billion in September but subsequently sold $39.3 billion [1] - China's holdings remained stable, with a slight increase of $4.1 billion in August followed by a decrease of $0.5 billion in September, totaling $700.5 billion [1][2] Group 2: Changes in Major Foreign Investors - Canada significantly increased its U.S. Treasury holdings by a total of $94.4 billion over two months, with increases of $62.3 billion in August and $32.1 billion in September, moving from the eighth to the fourth largest holder [2][3] - Other countries like Belgium, Luxembourg, Norway, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia also bought U.S. Treasuries in August and September, with total purchases of $38.6 billion, $16 billion, $7.9 billion, $10.4 billion, and $2.6 billion respectively [3] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Market Performance - U.S. Treasury yields decreased during August and September, with the 10-year yield experiencing a maximum fluctuation of over 40 basis points, briefly falling below 4% [5] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25% on September 17, 2025, amid signs of a slowing labor market [5][6] Group 4: U.S. Federal Debt Situation - As of August 11, 2025, the total outstanding public debt of the U.S. surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels [6] - The U.S. federal debt is projected to reach 126.8% of GDP in 2024, significantly exceeding the IMF's recommended threshold of 100% for developed economies [7] - Interest payments on the debt are expected to exceed $1 trillion this year, making it the second-largest item in the federal budget after defense and Medicare [8]