油价中枢存在底部支撑，石油ETF（561360）涨超1.5%

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that oil prices have a bottom support level, with the oil ETF (561360) rising over 1.5% [1] - Huatai Securities indicates that global new energy alternatives are steadily advancing, and starting from Q4 2025, actual supply increases from OPEC+ may be concentrated, alongside low-cost supply from South America, which could highlight the pressure of global crude oil supply surplus [1] - The forecast for Brent crude oil average prices is set at $68 per barrel for 2025 and $62 per barrel for 2026, with specific predictions of $63, $61, and $60 per barrel for Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 [1] Group 2 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed companies involved in oil and gas exploration, extraction, processing, and related services to reflect the overall performance of the oil and gas industry chain [1] - The constituent stocks of the index have a high industry concentration, focusing on the energy sector, which fully reflects its cyclical characteristics [1]