从G10垫底到明年首选？日元获全球投资者集体转向看好

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Japanese yen is widely regarded as the currency with the highest return potential for 2026, according to a recent global fund manager survey by Bank of America [1] - Approximately one-third of the surveyed investors expect the yen to achieve the best returns next year, with gold and the US dollar following closely behind, while only 3% chose the British pound [1] - The survey covered 172 investors with a total asset management scale of $475 billion, highlighting a significant interest in the yen despite its underperformance in 2025, where the dollar-yen exchange rate only increased by 1% [1] Group 2 - The yen's current low valuation is partly attributed to a sustained underweight in Japanese assets by international capital, with fund managers showing a net underweight of 4% in Japanese stocks, a trend that has persisted for over a year [1] - In the context of geopolitical tensions and rising trade policy uncertainties, safe-haven assets like gold have performed strongly, with gold prices reaching historical highs this year [2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has declined by approximately 7% this year, potentially marking its worst annual performance since 2017, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding former President Trump's policies [2] Group 3 - Market participants are closely monitoring potential currency intervention by Japanese authorities, especially after the yen briefly fell below the key psychological level of 160 yen per dollar in 2024 [2] - Speculators are inclined to buy the dollar against the yen, testing the tolerance of the Japanese Ministry of Finance, while verbal warnings from officials have had diminishing marginal effects on the market [2] - The future performance of the yen as the "best currency of 2026" will depend on multiple macroeconomic variables, including the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, the sustainability of fiscal policies, and potential intervention risks [2]