Group 1 - The aviation stocks are experiencing a general recovery, with China National Airlines rising by 2.8% to HKD 6.6, Southern Airlines increasing by 2.05% to HKD 5.48, Eastern Airlines up by 1.69% to HKD 4.81, and Meilan Airport gaining 1.06% to HKD 2.85 [1] - As of November 18, domestic crude oil futures have rebounded over 7% from a one-month low, with the main contract reaching a high of CNY 466.2 per barrel, indicating a volatile oil market influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [1] - Haitong Futures suggests that while there is a natural downward pressure on oil prices due to oversupply, geopolitical uncertainties are providing a counterbalance, leading to continued high volatility in oil prices [1] Group 2 - Cathay Haitong's report indicates that the seasonal impact at the end of October is weaker than in previous years, with airlines maintaining high load factors and ticket prices rising year-on-year [2] - The estimated load factor for international routes in September-October is over 80%, an increase of more than 3 percentage points year-on-year, driving ticket prices significantly higher than market expectations [2] - Zhongtai Securities notes that the current favorable conditions in oil prices and exchange rates suggest a "not-so-slow" trend for the fourth quarter, with expectations of significant loss reduction in the aviation industry by Q4 2025 and potential profit elasticity in 2026 [2]
港股异动 | 航空股普遍回暖 国际油价将继续保持高波动特征 机构看好行业四季度有望大幅减亏