日本长期国债风暴再度来袭? 20年期收益率飙至26年新高 市场惧“安倍式大放水”

Core Viewpoint - Investors are on high alert regarding the unexpectedly weak demand for Japan's 20-year and 40-year government bond auctions, particularly ahead of the new government's economic stimulus plan under Prime Minister Kishi Sanae [1][2] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds rose to 2.815%, marking the highest level since 1999, driven by concerns over increased fiscal spending plans that may significantly boost inflation and exacerbate Japan's already heavy debt burden [1] - The 40-year bond yield surged by 8 basis points to its highest level since its public market debut in 2007, indicating heightened market volatility [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the previous 20-year bond auction was 3.56, compared to a 12-month average of 3.30, suggesting potential weakness in upcoming auctions [4] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - A faction within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is urging the government to prepare a substantial budget of approximately 25 trillion yen (about 161 billion USD) to support the forthcoming stimulus plan [4] - Recent data showed a contraction in Japan's GDP for the last quarter, providing justification for the government's push for significant fiscal expansion [4] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that as investors grow increasingly wary of the potential scale of stimulus exceeding market expectations, Japan's fiscal risk premium is returning, which could exert significant selling pressure on long-term sovereign bonds and the yen [4] Group 3: Global Market Implications - Amundi's recent report indicated that due to concerns over increased borrowing by the new Prime Minister, yields on long-term Japanese government bonds may reach new historical highs in the coming months [5] - The potential for a "Japanese bond sell-off storm" could re-emerge, reminiscent of past market disruptions, if long-term bond yields rise sharply [5] - The "Sanae trade" reflects market expectations for a revival of "Abenomics," characterized by stronger fiscal stimulus, industry support, and a cautious stance on monetary tightening, leading to significant fluctuations in the stock, bond, and currency markets [6]