Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao·2025-11-19 04:01Core Viewpoint - Since mid-October, lithium carbonate prices have experienced a significant upward trend, with a cumulative increase of nearly 30% [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - By 2025, global lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach approximately 1.45 million tons, but due to increased demand in the second half of the year, the forecast has been updated to 1.55 million tons, with supply capacity around 1.7 million tons, indicating a surplus of about 200,000 tons [1] - In 2026, lithium carbonate demand is expected to grow by 30%, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is anticipated to increase by around 250,000 tons, leading to a near balance in supply and demand [1] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not keep pace, causing prices to potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [1] Price Dynamics - The high prices of lithium carbonate may suppress downstream purchasing willingness, particularly as the price of hexafluorophosphate lithium has surged over 200% in four months, impacting the profitability of downstream companies [2] - Current price dynamics show a linkage effect within the industry chain, with rising prices of hexafluorophosphate lithium and lithium carbonate driving each other [2] - The recovery of lithium prices has led to an increase in lithium salt exports from Chile and Australia, which may help alleviate domestic lithium resource shortages [2] Production and Inventory Insights - In September, lithium carbonate imports decreased by 10.3% to 19,596.9 tons, while exports plummeted by 59.12% to 150.816 tons; domestic production in October was 51,530 tons, reflecting a 9.31% increase, but the operating rate fell by 5 percentage points to 43%, indicating constraints in domestic capacity release [3] - By the end of December, supply tightness is expected to support the rise in lithium carbonate prices [4] Long-term Price Outlook - In the medium to long term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate between 70,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton, with 70,000 yuan/ton having clear cost and demand support, while 100,000 yuan/ton corresponds to the price level for the resumption of Australian mines [5] - From 2025 to 2030, the global lithium carbonate market is likely to maintain a surplus, with the supply surplus expected to narrow from 2025 to 2026 [5] - The global energy storage market is anticipated to become a new demand driver from 2025 to 2027, alongside steady growth in the power market [5] Key Demand Drivers - The sustainability of energy storage demand in 2026 will be crucial for influencing the prices of lithium carbonate and other raw materials [6] - The primary growth regions for the global energy storage market will remain in China, the United States, and Europe, with emerging regions like the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia also expected to increase storage demand [6] - Global energy storage demand is projected to grow by approximately 63% year-on-year in 2025, with a potential slowdown to a 15% increase in 2026, and a compound annual growth rate of around 15% from 2026 to 2030 [6]